Eastern Wyoming Forecast Discussion

Case: Archive (March 13 2019)

3:00 PM MDT May 25 2019

Discussion Metrics

Forecast Period:

From: 12:00 AM MDT (0600 UTC) March 13 2019

To: 5:00 AM MDT (1100 UTC) March 14 2019

Satellite Imagery:

Large cloud shield on moisture imagery was associated with deep tropical moisture plume and upper-level low pressure system covering most of Wyoming.

Observations:

METAR observations and surface isobaric pattern support a strong 970 hPa surface cyclone moving from central Colorado to central Nebraska by afternoon.

Operational Models:

WRF QPF (NAM Analysis initialization and WDM6 microphysics)

WRF suggests cyclone track favors widespread snow in cold sector and strong post-frontal winds over eastern Wyoming.

Forecast Challenges:

Locations of heaviest snowfall in plains and adjacent highlands.

Possible high surface winds in the plains after cold front passage.

Final Predictions:

Event snowfall: 12 to 24 inches in High Plains east of Laramie Range with blizzard conditions.

Example: WRF Forecast

Disclaimer:  Andretta Innovations LLC assumes no liability for application of these discussions in operational forecasting decisions.